PC shipments will decline by 9% in 2026 - IDC warns

The outlook for the PC market is turning sour as we head into 2026. A recent report from market tracker IDC suggests that the industry is in for a much rougher ride than anyone expected just a few weeks ago. Experts now warn that PC shipments could fall by as much as 9% over the next year. Even the best-case scenarios show the market shrinking. This is a big change from earlier forecasts, which had predicted a much smaller dip.

The main reason for this sudden gloom is a massive shortage of memory chips. Since mid-October, the supply of these parts has dropped sharply. This isn’t a normal market swing. Instead, it is being driven by the massive growth of artificial intelligence. Huge tech companies are buying up all the high-end memory they can find to build AI servers. Because these chips make more money for manufacturers, they are moving their production away from the parts used in everyday laptops and phones. This shortage could last for years as the AI race continues.

This shortage is hitting smartphones hard, too. Memory is one of the most expensive parts of a phone, especially for middle-of-the-road models. To deal with the rising costs, phone makers are likely to raise their prices or sell phones with less memory than they used to. IDC predicts that smartphone sales could drop by 5% as people decide to keep their old phones for longer rather than paying more for a new one with lower specs.

The timing couldn't be worse for the computer industry. Companies are currently trying to sell "AI PCs" that need a lot of memory to work. For instance, some of Microsoft's latest AI tools won't even run unless your computer has at least 16GB of memory. At the same time, memory prices are going up, which means these new computers will be even more expensive. Many shoppers feel like they are being asked to pay an extra "AI tax" for features they might not even want yet. Prices for new PCs are expected to jump by nearly 8%, which could scare off many buyers.

In this tough environment, the biggest names in the business have a clear advantage. Companies like Dell, HP, and Lenovo have the money and the long-term deals to get the parts they need. Smaller brands and people who build their own gaming PCs will likely struggle the most. While 2026 was supposed to be a great year for sales because of the end of Windows 10 support, it is now looking like a year of empty shelves and higher price tags.