A few days ago, Tianfeng International analyst, Guo Minghao, released a report on Huawei’s smartphone performance in 2019. According to Guo Minghao, under the premise of not violating the US export ban, mobile phone component suppliers are gradually resuming their business relationship with Huawei. The report believes that the key to the above changes is dependent on HongMeng OS and other criteria:
- The definition of export control is not clear;
- Huawei and suppliers have a strong motivation to restore mutual business relations;
- Supply chain globalization and technological autonomy are high;
- Recently, the focus of the Sino-US conflict has shifted to other topics
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The report estimates that there are two scenarios for Huawei mobile phone shipments in 2019. However, both scenarios are higher than the market consensus of 1.8-2.1 million units:
- If the US export control to Huawei remains the same, Huawei’s mobile phone shipments in 2019 will be 2.1–220 million units;
- If Huawei starts to ship its phones with Ark OS in October, Huawei’s phone shipments in 2019 will be 2.15–2.25 million units.
Guo Minghao pointed out that Huawei may start to ship HongMeng smartphones in October. The report said “If our predictions come true and assume that the US export control to Huawei remains the same, it will benefit from the demand of Q4 2019 peak season. Huawei phone shipments in 2019 may reach 2.15–2.25 million units. According to Guo, HongMeng will focus on the low-end market outside China. This is because the high-end market demand will be “too much” for the young OS. In the beginning, HongMeng will focus on Central and Eastern Europe and emerging markets. The report also said that Huawei’s mobile phone shipments in 2019 may be better than market expectations.