It has been almost 2 months since Apple launched the iPhone XR and the phone sales have only been mediocre. As per popular Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, his latest forecast is that overall iPhone shipments will reduce by 20% compared to previous forecasts for the first quarter of 2019. Kuo expects Apple to grab 38-42 million iPhones in the quarter which has lower than the original estimate of 47-52 million.
Kuo stated on a research note with TF International Securities that the company has decreased the 1Q19 iPhone shipment estimation by 20% which is 38–42mn units from previous assumptions of 47-52 million. He further explains that iPhone XR is not performing up to their expectations, which has led them to reduce 1Q19 XR shipment estimation to 15–20mn units from previous forecast of 20–25mn units. He also acknowledges the increase in orders of iPhone legacy models but he says it cannot offset the XR and XS series shipments because of the low season impact.
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According to Kuo, Apple’s annual shipment for the year 2018 is expected to be around 205 to 210 million. While in 2019, shipments will decline from 5 to 10% pushing sales down to 188-194 million. Kuo also believed that this current decline in the shipments is affecting current generation models. Lastly, Apple first quarter of the year 2019 will be released in May and that could be a very crucial moment for the firm.
At the moment Kuo has joined with other analysts and Apple team to discuss issues related with iPhone saturation and iPhone demand in China and the latest US-China tariff fight.