The global mobile phone market is not as simple as many may think. Even for large mobile phone brands such as Samsung and Apple, there is a need for serious market review to guide production. This will help to avoid the situation of having many devices in the market without buyers. According to Taiwan Economic Daily, the global mobile phone industry has a serious inventory this year. Not only have sales declined, but giants including Apple and Samsung have also started to reduce production. These large brands are doing all they can to reduce market risks, and accelerate the speed of destocking.
Analysts predict that due to factors such as slowing economic growth, inflation, and the epidemic this year, global mobile phone shipments will only be 1.26 billion units. This is a year-on-year (YoY) decline of 6.8%. Next year, global mobile phone shipments will be about 1.327 billion units, a YoY increase of 5.2%.
Decline affects more Android brands
The decline of the Android mobile phone camp is the most obvious this year. The three major Chinese brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo have all declined sharply, with a YoY decline of nearly 20%. Apple is the only one among the top six mobile phone brands that have a chance of positive growth this year. However, due to limited production capacity in the fourth quarter, final shipments may not be as good as previous forecasts.
Samsung is also affected by a few factors. Recently, there were reports that the production capacity of its Vietnam assembly plant, the largest production base, has been cut again. At present, the proportion of Vietnam plants in Samsung’s total mobile phone shipments has dropped to 50%. It may drop to 40% next year.
According to analysts, they believe that as far as the tech industry is concerned, mobile phones are the first industry to fall into a trough in this wave of market cold wind. The pace of destocking is also happening earlier than the industry expects. However, there is a chance to return to previous levels in the second quarter.
The top seven brands in the global mobile phone market are Samsung, Apple, OPPO, Xiaomi, Vivo, Transsion, and Honor. These brands account for more than 80% of global mobile phone shipments. Most mobile phones are in the first half of the year, while Apple is in the second half of the year.
Strategy Analytics: Global mobile phone shipments/sales ranking for November 2022
According to the Strategy Analytics Wireless Smartphone Strategy (WSS) service research report, global mobile phone shipments (sold in) and sales (sold) in November 2022 fell by 20% and 18% YoY respectively. Due to inflation and currency exchange rate volatility, weak total industry inventories, manufacturing disruptions caused by the epidemic, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and weak demand in multiple markets, the performance is also quite weak.
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In terms of mobile phone brands, Samsung will lead the global market in terms of shipments and sales in November 2022. Following Samsung is Apple in terms of shipments and sales. Xiaomi maintains its third position in both shipments and sales. Other brands on the list include OPPO (including OnePlus), Vivo, Transsion, Honor, Realme, Lenovo (Moto) and Huawei.
CINNO: the price of mobile phone panels will decline throughout 2022
The latest report from CINNO Research shows that due to the impact of the epidemic and the continued downturn in the global economy, market consumption is not as hot as in previous years. The global mobile phone market has failed to reverse the downward trend. There is no good expectation for panel demand. Also, the price of mobile phone panels will decline throughout 2022.
The report points out that as Korean panel brands gradually withdraw from the LCD panel market, after the price of large size panels stabilizes, the operating pressure of high generation lines will decrease. This will also lower the willingness to use mobile phone products to seize the market at low prices. But in the short term, mobile phone panel prices will remain under pressure.
Among them, the price of LCD mobile phone panels has entered a downward cycle since July 2021. Also, the price will continue to be in a downward channel throughout the year 2022. In addition, the decline will increase in the fourth quarter. In 2022, the cumulative decline of a-Si panels will be 13.3%, and the cumulative decline of LTPS panels will be 9.7%. The a-Si production capacity of panel makers continues to shift to IT/industrial control/vehicle products, and mainstream LTPS panel makers continue to increase shipments in the white-label market.
Demand for AMOLED devices slows down
The growth rate of demand for AMOLED mobile phone panels has slowed down. This coupled with the high inventory levels means that the market continues to oversupply. This is mostly so for flexible AMOLED panels, where price competition is fierce. In 2022, the price of flexible AMOLED mobile phone panels will drop by 19.8%. Also, the price of rigid AMOLED mobile phone panels will drop by 10.9%. The main panel brand, Samsung Display (SDC) has seen a significant decline in shipments and market share, especially in the Chinese market.
CINNO Research predicts that in the absence of obvious positive factors in demand, mobile phone panel prices will continue to decline. In addition, a-Si / LTPS panel prices will drop by $0.3 per month in December 2022 and January 2023. The price of rigid AMOLED panels will continue to drop by $0.5 and the price of flexible AMOLED panels may drop by $1. These drops across the board are forcing brands to reduce their projections.
