On the morning of November 12, the Tianfeng International analyst, Guo Minghao announced the iPhone XR shipment forecast. According to him, between the fourth quarter of 2018 and the third quarter of 2019, iPhone XR shipments have been estimated to be 100 million units. Now the shipments are downgraded to 70 million units. The price of the iPhone XR and the competition of the Huawei Mate 20 series are the main reasons for the reduction. Guo Minghao also said that the purchasing power of the Chinese market will gradually decrease.
Also Read: Apple To Further Cut Down The Production Of iPhone XR
Particularly, as Guo Minghao mentioned, the iPhone XR shipments were revised down by 30%-35% in the fourth quarter of 2018, or 30-35 million units; in the first and second quarters of 2019, they will be lowered by 25–30% and 25–30%, respectively.
Generally, compared with the total shipment of 52 million iPhones in the first quarter of 2018, the total iPhone shipments in the first quarter of 2019 are expected to fall by 15%-20%, from 5,5 to 6 million. Although the increase in shipments caused by the iPhone XS series and the lower price of the old iPhone can offset some of the declines in iPhone XR shipments, it does not prevent the decline in total shipments.
The increase in shipments of old iPhones in the first quarter of 2019 could not offset the decline in XR shipments. The lower cost of old iPhone components and assembly will have an impact on the profitability of suppliers. Therefore, the major suppliers of iPhone XR will have operational risks in the next 6-9 months. Among the major suppliers, Apple’s board supplier Jia Lianyi and Apple’s touchscreen supplier Nissha Printing (a Japanese photo printing company) cannot benefit from the increased shipments of the old iPhone. So the revenue of the two suppliers will be seriously affected.
Guo Minghao expects that the mass production of new products by Apple in 2019 will be postponed because the market demand is not as expected.