According to data from analyst firm Gartner, global semiconductor revenue will reach $676 billion in 2022, an increase of 13.6% from 2021. According to Evertiq, Alan Priestley, research vice president at Gartner, said, “…semiconductor average selling price (ASP) increases due to semiconductor stockouts will continue to be the main driver of global semiconductor market growth. However, by 2022, semiconductor components will increase. The overall tight supply situation in 2019 will gradually ease, and prices will stabilize as inventory conditions improve”. This should boost the global semiconductor revenue.
The latest forecast is up $37 billion from the previous quarter. With the slowdown in the growth of personal computers, smartphones, and server-end markets, the semiconductor supply and demand will gradually balance in 2022. The growth of semiconductor revenue will gradually slow down. Chip shortages will continue to be one of the concerns for the electronics supply chain in 2022. This will impact major electronics markets differently depending on the type of semiconductor device.
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Global semiconductor shortages
Most semiconductor shortages in the PC and smartphone segments are now easing up. Production is now entering the off-season and the market is increasing semiconductor supply. However, some semiconductor devices will continue to be in shortage in the automotive supply chain through the end of 2022. Until 2023, automotive applications will continue to face component supply constraints, especially MCUs, PMICs and voltage regulators.
According to Priestley “While 2022 unit production of automotive will increase by 12.5%, the ASP of semiconductor devices will grow in double digits (19%) in 2022 due to persistent tight supply.” “Automotive high-performance computing, EV/HEV, and other high-demand driver assistance systems will lead the growth of the automotive electronics industry during the forecast period.”
The memory market will remain the largest segment during the forecast period and will account for 31.4% of the overall semiconductor market in 2022. DRAM and NAND will be in short supply in the second quarter of 2022. The NAND market will be oversupplied from the fourth quarter of 2022. However, the DRAM market will be oversupplied from the second half of 2023. Bit shipments and higher annual average ASPs will sustain revenue growth in both markets in 2022. Nevertheless, the expectation is that DRAM will grow by 22.8% and NAND will grow by 38.1%.
Semiconductor revenue for smartphones will grow 15.2% in 2022, with 5G smartphone production rising 45.3% to 808 million units, accounting for 55% of all smartphone production. The migration from 4G to 5G by smartphone chipset suppliers has resulted in a temporary shortage of 4G SoC baseband. The increase in 5G baseband IC inventory will lead to lower 5G smartphone prices. It will also further accelerate 5G penetration during the forecast period.