Gene Munster, an analyst at Loup Ventures, said that on the first day of the iPhone XR’s pre-sales, the number of people snapping up the phone was less than when the iPhone XS was launched. But the iPhone XR will eventually become the most popular iPhone model.
In a research report, Gene Munster wrote: ‘We were surprised to find that, except for some models on the T-Mobile, the delivery time of the iPhone XR is almost completely unchanged. By contrast, in the same delivery time for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max was quickly extended to three to four weeks.’
However, the analyst also made it clear that there is a certain risk based on the demand for extended delivery time, because we can’t know how many products are produced in total, and it is not possible to judge according to this model only. Still, Gene Munster believes that the iPhone XR will be the best-selling iPhone next year, accounting for 38% of Apple’s 2019 shipments.
For some consumers, the iPhone XR is a more worthwhile model than the iPhone XS. The starting price of $749 is $250 lower than the iPhone XS. It also has many of the same features as the iPhone XS, such as Face ID, full-screen, and A12 processor.
Gene Munster plans to collect more data when the iPhone XR is officially launched on October 26, when people will line up for the iPhone XR at the Apple Store. He said: ‘If the number of people waiting in line is less than the number of people waiting for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max we observed in September, we will reassess our assumptions.’
‘But no matter what, our thinking will not change, that is, iPhone sales in FY 2019 will increase by 3% year-on-year, slightly higher than the Wall Street forecast of 1%. In addition, we still believe that the average selling price of iPhone has increased, it is expected to rise to $791, which is higher than Wall Street’s forecast of $770.’
Earlier this week, Guggenheim Partners analyst Robert Cihra predicted that the lower price of the iPhone XR might affect the overall average selling price of the iPhone. But Gene Munster believes that Apple may want better shipments to make up the difference.