Strong iPhone 17 Sales Boost 2025 Shipments, But Memory Shortage Threatens 2026

Friday, 05 December 2025 at 08:54

If you’re only looking at the end of 2025, things look pretty good. The global smartphone market is actually heading for a much better year than expected. IDC, the research firm, just revised its forecast for 2025 up to 1.5% growth—that means 1.25 billion units will ship worldwide. This is a nice little bump from their earlier prediction of just 1%.

And honestly, we can largely thank one company for that upward swing: Apple.

Key Points

2025 Market Uptick: Global smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 1.5% YoY in 2025, an upward revision primarily driven by strong consumer demand for the iPhone 17 series.
Apple Drives Growth: Apple is expected to have a record year with a 6.1% YoY increase in shipments, reversing market declines in key regions like China.
2026 Decline Factors: Shipments are forecast to decline 0.9% in 2026 due to the impact of a global memory component shortage and a delayed base iPhone model launch.
Supply Constraint Warning: The memory shortage is expected to severely limit supply and raise prices, disproportionately affecting the low- to mid-range Android device market.
Record Market Value: Despite the decline in units, the Average Selling Price (ASP) is projected to reach $465, pushing the total market value to a record $578.9 billion.

Apple’s Unprecedented 2025 Momentum

IDC is calling 2025 a record year for Apple. Their shipment forecasts are now expected to grow by a massive 6.1% year-over-year (YoY), pushing them past 247 million units shipped. That’s a huge vote of confidence in the latest iPhone 17 series.

What’s wild is the impact in China. According to IDC’s data, Apple was number one in October and November. That kind of strong demand actually flipped China’s market forecast from an anticipated decline to a 3% positive growth for the year. That just doesn’t happen often. The success isn't just about volume; Apple's total revenue for the year is forecast to jump 7.2%, surpassing $261 billion. It’s a phenomenal, maybe slightly unsustainable, run.

The Big Problem Coming in 2026

Now, here’s where the good news stops, and you need to pay attention. The outlook for 2026 is turning sharply negative. IDC is predicting a 0.9% decline in unit shipments next year. That reverses their earlier growth forecast completely.

Why the sudden dip? There are two main culprits, and both impact inventory and price.

First, there’s an Apple factor. They are reportedly delaying the launch of their next base iPhone model from its typical Fall 2026 spot until early 2027. That delay alone is expected to shave 4.2% off overall iOS shipments.

Second, and perhaps more crucially for the rest of us, is the global memory shortage. RAM and storage components are becoming more limited and more expensive. This supply constraint is going to slam the low- to mid-range Android market hardest, as those devices are the most sensitive to rising production costs.

Fewer Phones, Higher Price Tags

As memory prices go up, manufacturers have two choices, according to IDC analysts. They either have to raise the price of their existing phones, or they focus production purely on their higher-margin, premium models.

This dynamic means that even though fewer smartphones will ship in 2026, the Average Selling Price (ASP) is forecast to jump to $465. That will push the total market value to a record high of $578.9 billion. So, the entire market is still making more money, but you, the consumer, will pay more for fewer choices. That’s a tough pill to swallow heading into the new year.